'Just try to become less crap at it'

This was a declaration by Rory Sutherland, leader of Ogilvy Change on their website when talking about marketing. Somewhat self-deprecating, but a useful starting point from a great intellect and very relevant to media measurement.

He makes the point that he is opposed to the concept of surveys and focus groups. The areas of the brain that fire buyer behaviour do not respond well to this type of introspection, often residing at a sub-concious level. I have often wondered about the value of this style of research, seeing it as a way of gauging peoples views on questioning process rather than the actual questions; the Hawthorne Effect, and all that....

So could the media be the touch-point on people forecasting? Yes, but it needs to be one of a selection, a host of pointers based on unique circumstances, fashioned and adapted to reflect the changing circumstances (competitors, technology, expectations, etc). A gauge on the media has its advantages. Whilst it often seems a contrived situation, it is about free expression and combined with social media selective amplification, provides a good measure of weight and velocity.